Reallocating to Asia: A smart move for real estate investors?

Global real estate returns turned positive in 2Q2024 after two years of cumulative losses, hinting at a budding recovery. During the era of low interest rates, real estate values soared, with global total returns reaching 5.0% q-o-q in 4Q2021 and 17.8% y-o-y in 1Q2022 — figures well above long-term averages. However, the tightening cycle that followed erased those gains, bringing values back to 2018 levels globally. We believe the real estate market correction is nearly complete, making it an opportune time for investors to revisit this asset class. Historically, real estate has provided stable income returns and portfolio diversification benefits over the long term, and it can offer robust returns during recovery periods. For instance, after the early 90s recession, investors saw a 76% cumulative return over the next five years. Read also: Nuveen Real Estate to sell stake in Edinburgh mixed-use project St James Quarter and W Edinburgh Hotel Advertisement Advertisement Following the tech-wreck, the five-year cumulative total return was 98%, and after the Global Financial Crisis, it was 86%.

Evidence of a turnaround in....valuations

In 2Q2024, global value losses moderated to 0.74%, marking the lowest quarterly adjustment in the past two years. With offsetting income returns of 1.07%, global real estate achieved a positive 0.33% return, the first positive quarter since 2Q2022. Among the 15 global markets in the MSCI Global Property Index, a slight majority saw write-ups in real estate values for the first time since 2Q2022. Eight markets, including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, Southern Europe, the Nordics, the Netherlands, France and the UK experienced value increases from the prior quarter. Six markets saw value losses between 0.3% and 1.5%, all of which moderated from 1Q2024. Only Australia recorded a larger write-down in the second quarter than in the first, with a 4.2% correction aligning valuations more closely with its peers. However, changes in capital values are just one component of real estate returns. Historically, the larger component of total returns has been income. This trend underscores the importance of income returns in driving overall performance in the real estate sector, highlighting the need for investors to consider both capital and income aspects when evaluating real estate investments.

Total returns

Income returns are generally stable and often cited by investors as a primary reason for investing in real estate. In the second quarter, total returns, which combine capital and income returns, were positive in 12 of 15 countries. They were flat in the US (–0.09%), slightly negative in Ireland (–0.22%), and significantly negative in Australia (–3.07%). Preliminary NCREIF ODCE index (a capitalisation-weighted, gross-of-fee, time-weighted return index) data showed US total returns turning positive (0.25%). With values beginning to rebound, we expect the positive trajectory in total returns to continue. Read also: Sun Venture acquires 1 and 2 New Ludgate for $987 mil Advertisement Advertisement

Asia Pacific outlook

Although fundraising for real estate investment shows signs of a potential rebound globally after two slow years, China and Japan could face challenges. In 3Q2024, China and Japan accounted for 27% and 15% of the US$7.5 billion ($10.04 billion) in cross-border inflows in Asia Pacific. Over half of Japan’s inflows were from global sources, while most of China’s came from within Asia Pacific, particularly Hong Kong and Singapore. Both countries face high debt costs and other factors hindering a strong rebound in real estate capital inflows.

China: Drop in Western demand

Interest in Chinese real estate from the West has dramatically declined over the past couple of years due to geopolitical and economic concerns. Despite Beijing’s recent major stimulus package, it is unlikely to return soon. The market has been stagnant due to price dislocation, geopolitical risk and lack of liquidity. Since 2021, China has faced a property crisis exacerbated by the collapse of Evergrande. Due to these risks, many European investors are avoiding China and Hong Kong, regardless of potential returns. Additionally, China’s domestic property crisis persists, with high office vacancies and low rental yields, ongoing issues with failing developers, and government interventions.

Japan: A rates outlier

While major markets like the US have cut interest rates to boost property investment, Japan remains an outlier. The broader Japanese property sector is losing allure due to interest rate policies and limited cap rate compression. In July, the Bank of Japan raised borrowing rates for the first time since 2007 to control inflation, reducing market attractiveness. This hike has prevented cap rate compression, meaning property prices haven’t risen, forcing real estate holders to rely on historically low-income yields. Read also: [UPDATED] What’s in store for Asia-Pacific real estate in the coming quarters Advertisement Advertisement However, senior housing remains an attractive niche due to Japan’s ageing population, with 29% aged 65 or over. These assets are small, requiring an amalgamation play by investors.

Australian allure

Australia’s purpose-built student accommodation (PBSA) market has huge potential due to a significant housing shortage. Only 20% of students in Melbourne and Sydney can be accommodated by universities, forcing the rest to seek private rentals. Additionally, real estate debt in Australia offers appealing risk-adjusted returns. There are funding gaps in construction, with many developers unable to secure bank financing. We are looking at sectors like logistics or PBSA, where we see long-term growth opportunities.

Stabilising fundamentals

Stabilising valuations and transaction market pricing both suggest that the real estate market is likely near its bottom, but these signals alone do not indicate an attractive entry point. For market pricing and valuations to increase, we would ideally see declining interest rates and strengthening property fundamentals. Most developed market central banks are beginning to taper interest rates, which should put downward pressure on financing rates, discount rates, and property capitalisation rates, thereby boosting the value of real estate assets. A pullback in construction activity across sectors bodes well for property fundamentals in the medium term. With supply headwinds waning, markets with positive demand due to population growth or structural changes, such as e-commerce, are set to see increased occupancies in the medium term. Historically, occupancies and rent growth are well correlated, providing investors with opportunities to gain from increased occupancies, rents, and the associated rise in property values. The outlook for global private real estate appears to be improving, but the rising tide is unlikely to lift all boats. For instance, the US office market still faces significant challenges, and a broad recovery in that segment seems highly unlikely in the near term. This underscores the importance of research and selectivity when investing in real estate, as not all markets and property types will perform equally well.

Rebalance with real estate

In an uncertain economic and geopolitical environment, additional risks are inevitable, but this applies to all asset classes. Over the past two years, the weight of real estate in investors’ portfolios has significantly decreased due to resetting real estate values and a record stock market. Today, investors might consider fresh allocations to the private real estate market to achieve a strategic weighting. Over the long term, private real estate offers low correlations to other asset classes, strong income returns, and a degree of inflation-hedging. While there may be bumps in the road, we believe the market is beginning to look up, presenting excellent investment opportunities for savvy investors.